How much does a bridge cost? For such a simple question, it's hard to answer accurately. But with hundreds of millions of dollars in capital projects in our master plans, this matters.
Predicting the cost and timeline of a capital project is difficult. When we complete our 10-year financial plans, we need to predict project costs several years in the future with only rough ideas about project parameters and what economic conditions might be when it starts. We start collecting development and amenity cost charges and project future taxation levels based on these predictions. So getting them right (or at least close) is important.
Project costing often starts with a draft of the initial designs, which you send to an engineer to count up how much concrete, how much steel, how much asphalt, and how many hours of people and equipment you'll need. You can then multiply these by the estimated costs of each item to get the total project cost estimate. A project manager can then plug it all into their favourite task-managing software and predict how long it will take. Add a 30% contingency and call it a plan. And yet, with all this planning, we (I don't mean just District of Squamish; I mean most people and organizations) end up predicting that a project will cost less and finish faster than it actually does.
You could simply say that you need to "hold someone accountable" for cost or time overruns, but what does that really mean? Firing someone won't deliver the project any faster, and fear is a notoriously poor motivator of great work. We need to think about the whole project life-cycle, from the initial objective to the ribbon-cutting ceremony.
Start with your initial predictions. We know there will be unforeseen issues and that those issues will depend on the nature of the project. To help there, we can use something called "reference-class forecasting" - looking at what other projects have been completed and how much they ended up costing. The photo on the left is the $33M Hwy 7 Dewdney Bridge project near Mission. Collect as many of these examples as you can (the 'reference class') to see how much bridges typically cost. While this reference-class estimate should never replace a full design cost estimate, it is an important starting point that doesn't require paying for detailed drawings and costing. This reference-class forecast is not current practice for project costings submitted to Council. I believe it should be. Something that looks like a cost overrun could actually have been a prediction underrun.
As your projects get shovels in the ground, time matters. The longer the construction takes, the more opportunities there are for problems to pop up. Plan slowly (well, carefully), build quickly. Use modular design whenever possible. Unless required, avoid customization. Define clear decision pathways so you can respond quickly to changes. None of this is news to the District's professional staff, but as Council, we need to keep these things in mind as we guide projects from initial concept to final ribbon.
Here is the book that has most influenced my thinking on project planning: